Feasibility Study of Possible UAS Projects for a Small Armed Forces

The short paper studies the feasibility (required resources, competency, and data) of building some UAS capabilities referring to efforts invested in similar capabilities in other countries. First section provides the essential requirement for development of autonomous vehicles. Second section gives a quick overview in trends for unmanning intentions. Third section provides some references and proposes options for a small armed force without a support of strong national defence industry.

1. Requirements for Autonomous Vehicle Development

Typically, the development of autonomous systems requires the following process:

1. Creation of a generative adversarial network (GAN)  that can learn from data extracted from live or simulated combat engagements taking place in a relatively stable environment (air or subsurface)
2. Data captured from combat engagement or created in a synthesised game
3. Computer performance to run a high number of simulations to teach the GAN
4. Platform to take the learned AI “driver” to a real environment and start testing and continue learning
5. Feedback loop, re-engineering of GAN, and data bias-removing function to proceed with teaching and improving the performance of the autonomous function.

Furthermore, the following functions or components are required to gain autonomous  features on a platform:

• Sense to gather information about engaging entities and their environment
• Perceive and understand the collected data
• Decide to optimise action based on possible scenarios and their outcome
• Act as control of all physical and logical entities required for impact. 

2. Current Trends in Unmanned Vehicles Development

An advanced autonomous unmanned system is destined to evolve toward low manual intervention, high autonomy, and high intellectualisation, no matter whether it is for military or civilian use. 

3. Examples of Military Autonomous Systems and Required R&D Investments

The following table provides examples from different military autonomous/semiautonomous systems, their development efforts, and options for a small armed force to proceed with similar capability.

UAS Capability	Reference	Investments and time	Options for a small armed force
Unmanned Surface Vehicle	Cost-effective, enduring ISR vessel: Saildrone Explorer[1] combines wind-powered propulsion technology and solar-powered meteorological and oceanographic sensors to perform autonomous long-range data collection missions in the harshest ocean environments.[2] It navigates up to 12 months autonomously through large areas of the oceans based on waypoint-to-waypoint navigation through wind and currents.[3]	2012 Saildrone Inc. Established 2017 two pilot vessels 2019 Antarctic circumnavigation 2021 sailed into category 4 hurricane 2021 deployed in the Red Sea Up to 2021, together, $174M venture capital raised	1. Acquire several of these and deploy. Concentrate on collecting data and creating models that understand better the oceanographic environment and build data sets for nextgen autonomous features.
Unmanned Combat Surface Vehicle	Multipurpose vessel for coastal defence: JARI USV[4], CSIC developed an unmanned combat boat 20-ton multipurpose vessel with torpedoes, a vertical missile launcher, and air defence.[5] Remotely controlled, autonomous navigation, automated action, swarming with other vessels.[6]	2018 a mock-up model in ADD 2019 see trials with a prototype 2019 IDEX 2021 manufactured and ‘combat ready’ model in AirShow China[7]	1. Acquire JARI platforms and establish R&D cooperation with CSIC. 2. Acquire a testing vessel with IP and establish an Open Hackathon to get concepts for autonomous features. Continue as an open-source development programme.
Unmanned Sub-Surface Vehicle	Subsurface autopilot[8]: A autonomous pilot program that can manage a variety of underwater vehicles[9]	Dynautics, UK development story since 2018: - SPECTRE remote control autopilot system which is retrofittable to standard manned boats -Developed the CAM concept, which allows SPECTRE to be used on underwater vehicles with 6 degrees of freedom - Developed advanced Dynamic Positioning algorithms, which are now used on a wide variety of unmanned surface and subsurface vehicles for position stability down to 10 mm in three axes. - Developed the data fusion algorithms used in our gyro-stabilised compass - Collision Avoidance algorithms enable the vehicle to react to multiple fixed or moving obstacles.	1. Acquire a COTS programme and implement it on existing sub-surface platforms
Unmanned Ground Vehicle	Platoon support vehicle: Milrem Robotics THeMIS UGV, Estonia. Remote-controlled driving, autonomous navigation ability along a given route.[10]	2015 prototype 2017 weapon system integration 2019-2020 in operation 2020 sold to 11 countries 2021 EU iMUGS-project builds a standard UGV solution with $32,6 M[11]	1. Acquire the Milrem Intelligent Function Integration Kit (MIFIK) and start implementing it on an existing platform 2. Acquire THeMIS UGVs for tactical development and seek possibilities to join the iMUGS
Unmanned Air Vehicle	Autopilot any aircraft: China refurbished their old fighter jets with unmanned kits and made them multipurpose UAVs[12]	2013 first indications 2021 Won simulated dogfights[13] 2021 seen readiness for SEAD operation[14]	1. Cooperate with PLA to develop “Intelligence Victory” air combat AI 2. Contract a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System provider[15] and build the core system.
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle	Swarming attack copter: The Golden Eagle 150B Swarm drone is an unmanned attack aircraft manufactured by China North Industries Group.[16]	2017 IDEX as 500 artillery fire control 2018 AirShow China 500 with air to ground missiles[17] 2020 150B with swarming features carrying bomblets[18]	1. Acquire MOTS from China and deploy 2. Build own capability using Drone racing, FPV, sports[19]
Suicide Combat Air Vehicle	Air-to-Ground munition: The AeroVironment Switchblade is a miniature loitering munition that locks onto and tracks a target once selected.[20]	2011 prototype 2012 deployed in ISAF 2015 unarmed variant 2020 anti-armour variant Development est. $10M, an M300 costs est. $6000[21]	1. Acquire MOTS products and deploy with PG to replace Artillery, Helicopter, and CAS support.
Unmanned Air Vehicle Logistics	Autonomous delivery drone: UAV transport packages, medical supplies, food, or other goods.	2013 concept for rapid delivery[22] 2014 prototypes 2015 Ali Baba started delivery 2016 first fully autonomous delivery in the US 2021 Delivery networks based on UAVs[23]	1. Align with regulations, buy COTS drones, and start delivering small goods[24]
Unmanned Air Vehicle Medical	An autonomous VTOL UAV for evacuation: Dragonfly manufactured DP-14 Hawk[25], a rotary-wing craft that uses relative positioning enabling self-launch and self-recover with 8-inch accuracy [26]	2016 US Army seeking potential evacuation drone 2017 they found DP-14 Hawk, an industrial UAV[27]	1. Acquire an industrial cargo UAV, modify it for evacuation and deploy it widely to recover lost people, replace emergency helicopters, and evacuating vehicles.

References:

BlackBerry 2022: Ultimate guide to autonomous systems

Robotic Systems and Autonomous Platforms, 2019

RT Staff 2018: Breaking down autonomous systems, Robotic Business Review

Tao Zhang et al, 2017: Current trends in the development of intelligent unmanned autonomous systems, Frontiers of Information Technology and Electronic Engineering 18, 68-85

Wikipedia 2022: Generative adversarial network

Links:

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[1] https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/01/31/us-tests-drone-boats-that-can-sail-for-12-months-on-solar-power/

[2] https://www.saildrone.com/technology/vehicles

[3] https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/12/15/us-navy-unmanned-saildrone/

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JARI_USV

[5] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/China-s-latest-fighter-jets-drones-display-war-making-capability

[6] https://www.defenceview.in/inside-chinas-unmanned-surface-vessel-fleet/

[7] https://navalpost.com/china-launches-unmanned-warship-named-jari/

[8] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45757.pdf

[9] https://www.dynautics.com/products-unmanned-surface-vehicle/marine-autopilots/spectre-autopilot-autonomous-underwater-vehicles/

[10] https://milremrobotics.com/defence/

[11] https://www.armyrecognition.com/weapons_defence_industry_military_technology_uk/estonian-made_milrem_themis_ugv_unmanned_ground_vehicle_in_service_with_11_countries.html

[12] https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/10/20/china-shows-off-drones-recycled-from-soviet-era-fighter-jets/

[13] https://www.businessinsider.com/china-pits-fighter-pilots-against-ai-aircraft-in-simulated-dogfights-2021-6?r=US&IR=T

[14] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41386/flanker-fighter-appears-among-unmanned-aircraft-at-chinas-secretive-drone-test-base

[15] https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210309005661/en/Reliable-Robotics-Remotely-Pilots-Aircraft-from-Private-Control-Center-a-First-for-Commercial-Aviation

[16] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/China-s-latest-fighter-jets-drones-display-war-making-capability

[17] https://defencehub.live/threads/china%E2%80%99s-cr500-%E2%80%98golden-eagle%E2%80%99-unmanned-helicopter-finds-export-customer.3265/

[18] https://www.militarydrones.org.cn/golden-eagle-150b-uav-p00306p1.html

[19] https://www.fai.org/drone-sports?upcoming=1&f%5B0%5D=fai_event_year%3A2022&display=list

[20] https://www.avinc.com/tms/switchblade

[21] https://www.avinc.com/images/uploads/product_docs/201215_AV_Product_Catalog_R09.pdf

[22] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delivery_drone

[23] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/drone-delivery-supply-chains/

[24] https://airsupply.com/

[25] https://www.aeroexpo.online/prod/dragonfly-pictures/product-181533-26559.html

[26] https://www.dragonflypictures.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/DPI-DP-14-Hawk-Spec-Sheet_v11.pdf

[27] https://taskandpurpose.com/gear-tech/army-drone-helicopter-medevac/

US DoD Launched a Major Transformation of their Doctrine - from Joint Warfighting to Expanded Manoeuvre

 SITUATION

A brutal loss in a secret wargaming exercise October 2020 convinced the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. John Hyten to scrap the Joint Warfighting concept that had guided U.S. military operations for decades. It seemed that there were at least the following weaknesses in projecting the power:

1. Massing the force before deployment makes it vulnerable to far reaching and hypersonic missiles
2. Dependability of centralized connectivity and computing for information services handicaps the force if they lose the network
3. Transmitting in-the-air all time makes units detectable and identifiable through Electromagnetic surveillance measures
4. Long distances require over-air or over-seas transportation, which means that supply chains are vulnerable for asymmetric impacts
5. Massing of troops globally takes time and effort. US is operating along exterior lines compared to their competitors who have the interior advantage (Jomini).

“We always aggregate to fight, and aggregate to survive. But in today’s world, with hypersonic missiles, with significant long-range fires coming at us from all domains, if you're aggregated and everybody knows where you are, you're vulnerable,” Hyten said.

Source: https://twitter.com/warkin/status/1216778424552951808

REMEDY

In response, the Joint Chiefs have since October been shifting the U.S. military to a new concept of warfighting operations they call “Expanded Maneuver.” Hyten wants the U.S. military to be ready to fight under the new operating concept by 2030, using many of today’s weapons, aircraft, and ships.

Source: The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations 2028

Earlier July 2021, Hyten released four directives to the services: one each for contested logistics; joint fires; Joint All-Domain Command and Control, or JADC2; and information advantage. On Monday, he revealed new details about these “functional battles”:

1. Contested logistics. Creating new ways to deliver fuel and supplies to front lines. U.S. Transportation Command and the Air Force are working on using rockets and a space trajectory to get large cargo spaceships into and out of battlefields. 

• AFRL will look at whether reusable commercial rockets that can carry up to 100 tons of cargo could be used to deliver gear to a conflict in an hour or less. The Air Force is also considering using the rockets for humanitarian missions and disaster relief.
• AFRL will not develop its own rocket but use commercial rockets already in production. It will work with the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center to determine how to configure and load shipping containers qualified for space flight.
• The program would initially focus on port-to-port transfers of cargo but could one day include manned missions that rapidly inject troops into a battlespace, depending on what the commercial sector can create.

Source: Modern War Institute – System logistics in contested environment 2021

2. Joint fires through all domains: “You have to aggregate to mass fires, but it doesn't have to be a physical aggregation,” Hyten said. “It could be a virtual aggregation for multiple domains; acting at the same time under a single command structure allows the fires to come in on anybody. It allows you to disaggregate to survive.” Hyten said the joint fires concept “is aspirational. It is unbelievably difficult to do.” And the military will have to figure out what part will be affordable and practical, he said. 

 

Source: Army Multi-Domain Operations Concept, December 2018.

• The concept will call for every service to conduct long-range strikes. “In the future, there will be no lines on the battlefield. ... An Army capability can have on its own platform the ability to defend itself or the ability to strike deep into an adversary area of operations. A naval force can defend itself or strike deep. An air force can defend itself or strike deep. The Marines can defend itself or strike deep. ... Everybody.”
• The concept will seamlessly integrate “fires from all domains, including space and cyber,” to overwhelm an enemy.
• The concept might endorse the Army’s plan to buy 1,000-mile-plus, surface-to-surface missiles that cost millions of dollars each. Doing so would ignore analyses that have determined using large numbers of these weapons would be far more expensive than employing bombers that can strike any target on the planet for a fraction of the cost, then regenerate and fly more sorties.

3. Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2): The Pentagon’s push to connect everything demands always-on, hackerproof networks, Hyten said. “The goal is to be fully connected to a combat cloud that has all information that you can access at anytime, anyplace,” so that, like with joint fires, the data doesn’t get exposed or hacked because it’s housed in one centralized location, he said. 

• The Defense Department is in the final stages of work on its strategy to connect sensors from each military service under a unified network, according to the top project official on the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
• Over the next calendar year DoD will begin experimenting and demonstrating capabilities for JADC2 as well as work on making the Pentagon a data-centric organization.
• Tactical data fabric called “Rainmaker” is focused on the Army’s tactical information environment, with imminent collaborations across the services in support of Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control. “It leverages a re-usable set of data management capabilities to provide the right data, in the right format, to the right user, and at the right time. It simplifies and integrates data management across cloud and on premises to accelerate digital transformation.”
• Near term the military needs its data fabric to understand data in the current languages those systems speak at the current interfaces the systems support, move that data around the mission space, and present it in formats other systems understand. Longer term, the military needs to update and develop systems as open as possible using modernized data sharing methods.
• Seemingly, the challenged JEDI private cloud acquisition has been replaced by JADC2 programme.

Source: Contested Electromagnetic Environment in Modern Battlefield, Joint Air Power Competency Center, 2018

4. Information advantage: This element is the sum of the first three, Hyten said: “If we can do the things, I just described, the United States and our allies will have an information advantage over anybody that we could possibly face.”

Source: Information Advantage Framework by Ritika Sehgal 2019

Links to Additional Information:

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/07/it-failed-miserably-after-wargaming-loss-joint-chiefs-are-overhauling-how-us-military-will-fight/184050/

https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/interior-lines

https://mwi.usma.edu/four-logistics-dilemmas-awaiting-army-modern-battlefield/

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/09/22/a-consensus-driven-joint-concept-for-all-domain-warfare-will-fall-short/

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/08/21/the-dod-needs-to-rethink-long-range-strike-in-its-joint-war-fighting-concept/

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/04/jadc2-strategy-nearing-completion-official-says/173558/

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/06/pentagons-accelerating-connect-everything-effort-hinges-uncertain-cloud-program/174528/

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11493

https://www.japcc.org/electronic-warfare-the-forgotten-discipline/

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/information-management-framework-gain-advantage-ritika-sehgal/