Developments in Quantum Science and Opportunities for Military Use

 Military Aspirations Concerning Quantum Science

Revolutions in quantum science have generated military abilities in two waves of revolution:

1. Quantum revolution generated technologies that enable nuclear power, semiconductors, lasers, magnetic resonance imaging and other imaging technologies.

2. Quantum revolution focuses on controlling individual quantum systems (atoms, electrons, photons, quasiparticles). Most of these dual-use technologies aim to improve measurement capability, sensing, precision, and computation performance. (Dowling & Milburn, 2003)

The USA launched National Quantum Initiative 2018, and U.S. DoD has joined the programme to “better enable the United States to maintain its global leadership in quantum information science” and “by supporting existing efforts and accelerating critical growth in the field.” (Gould, 2021)

“The quantum world hosts a rich variety of physics that could enable functionality far beyond what traditional technologies can achieve,” the National Security Agency said in a press release. “By probing and manipulating phenomena that occur at the single particle scale, the emerging field of quantum information science (QIS) aims to create new forms of computing, sensing and communications that could revolutionise how we process and transmit data.” (Harper, 2020)

• In the near term, super-accurate clocks and quantum-based sensors could aid with precision navigation and timing, which is critical for military missions.

• In the future, U.S. forces might have to operate in GPS-denied environments, and Pentagon officials are looking for alternatives to space-enabled navigation.

• Quantum computing is information compression and subsequent acceleration, allowing computers to simultaneously process seemingly infinite possibilities. 

• Experts are also eyeing quantum communications for defensive and offensive purposes. (Sayler, 2021)

In 2016, Beijing initiated an effort to achieve a quantum technology breakthrough by 2030. The planned US$10-billion National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences in Hefei, Anhui province, leads the nation’s drive for quantum computing and sensing. (IISS, 2019) 

The United Kingdom’s Defence Science Expert Committee has noted the importance of improved gravity sensors (quantum gravimeters), which could detect moving masses underwater, such as in submarines. (IISS, 2019)

Russia is also investing in quantum computing at the Russian Quantum Center, but it has not committed the same level of resources as other nations and remains behind China and the U.S. (IISS, 2019)

Figure 1: Announced public sector investments in Quantum computing (McKinsey) (McKinsey, 2021)

Some Interesting Applications and Proceedings of Quantum Science

Quantum computing refers to the utilisation of quantum information science to perform computations. Such a machine can be called a quantum computer, for example: (Krelina, 2021) 

• A digital quantum computer is universal, programmable and should perform all possible quantum algorithms. On the other hand, classical computers can fully simulate the gate-level-based quantum computer. The difference is in resources and speed. For instance, the simulation of thoroughly entangled qubits increases the requirement of classical resources exponentially. 
• Analogue quantum computer (Hamiltonian computation) typically uses quantum annealing. Quantum annealer differs from the digital quantum computer by the limited connectivity of qubits and different principles. Therefore, the utilisation of analogue quantum computers is more constrained but is still suitable for tasks such as quantum optimisations or Hamiltonian-based simulations. 
• A Quantum simulator is used to study and simulate other quantum systems that generally are less accessible and is usually built as a single-purpose machine. The quantum simulator can be imagined as a non-programmable quantum circuit compared to a quantum computer.

Digital quantum computing has seen a fast evolution of:

• 2023 IBM aims for 1121 qubits computer
• 2022 IBM promotes their new z16 machine’s ability to handle real-time fraud detection for instant payments across the financial sector. (Saran, 2022)
• 2021 IBM Eagle processor with 127 qubits (Rincon, 2021)
• 2020 IBM Hummingbird with 65 qubits; Chinese superconducting processor with 56 qubits (Johnston, 2021)
• 2019 Google Sycamore with 53 cubits; IBM Falcon with 27 qubits (van Amerongen, 2021)
• 2016 IBM provided quantum computer as a service through their cloud (QCaaS)

In Quantum simulation, Siemens aims to use proprietary quantum methods to solve complex non-linear differential equations. These will be used in Siemens’ computer-aided product design and testing software in digital-twin simulations to support clients in the automotive, electronics, energy, and aerospace sectors. (Saran, Siemens looks at quantum computing to accelerate simulations, 2022)

Quantum optimisation generates two outcomes: quantum-inspired algorithms and speeding up the classical heuristic optimisation process. Typical optimisation applications may be found in logistics, supply chains, traffic, and targeting.

Quantum-enhanced machine learning breakthroughs are waiting for quantum memory and quantum coding of data. However, earlier benefits may be gained from quantum sensing and imaging and ML applied to generated quantum data.

Quantum cryptoanalysis has algorithms ready but lacks computing performance. Shor’s algorithm can exponentially speed up the factorisation of large prime numbers used in RSA, D.H. and ECC. Grover’s searching algorithm reduces the brute-force time by half. Around 2128 quantum operations may be required to brute-force the 256-bit AES key. A regular computer takes around 70 years to break AES 256 encryption. (Allison, 2018)

Quantum communications use low-loss optical fibre or free-space channels (most realistic between satellites) and photons to transfer information. However, a network requires several repeaters or switches because of fragile photon transmission. 

Quantum key distribution (QKD) exchanges private keys over a separate connection and is encrypted at a photonic level. The encryption key is generated using a pair of entangled photons so the possible interception will be detected before the transmission even happens. The method extends the use of average prime numbers for mass encryption since the key is transferred separately and more securely. Naturally, a denial-of-service attack will suppress the whole key exchange and message transfer system. (Allison, 2018) In 2016, China launched the quantum science satellite “Micius”, which claims to demonstrate ground-satellite-ground QKD. (IISS, 2019)

Quantum sensing and metrology is the most mature area of quantum technology. Quantum sensors can produce precise information about electrical signal, magnetic anomalies and inertial navigation.

Quantum clocks are based on single-ion providing uncertainty below 10 -18, whereas current atomic clocks commonly provide around 2x10 -12 uncertainty.

Quantum navigation operates via a process called atom interferometry. If you cool atoms to just millionths of a degree above absolute zero, then hit them with beams of light, you can trick them into a quantum superposition. Each atom takes on two states simultaneously: moving and still. Each state reacts differently to forces, including gravity and acceleration. That allows you to measure things like distance more accurately than GPS—without needing a hackable signal from space. “These inertial sensors can be used wherever there is a need for a position or navigational information, and where a GPS outage is unacceptable, or GPS is unavailable.” (Tucker, 2021)

Quantum imaging systems exploit photon correlations allowing better noise suppression and higher resolution. Applications include quantum radar, lidar, quantum 3D, behind-the-corner, low-brightness, and medical imaging. 

Status of Quantum Science from a Military Viewpoint

China, E.U., and the U.S., among other states, are expecting a lot from research and development around quantum physics applications. From a military viewpoint, the application situation looks, for example: (Parker, 2021)

• Quantum key distribution is mature and provides an untampered way of transferring sensitive encryption keys over fibre
• Quantum clocks are tiny and accurate to provide much better accuracy than previous atom-clocks
• Quantum sensors are more sensitive than conventional ones, although quantum radar application did not meet the DoD expectations in 2021.  
• Quantum computing is advancing with speed – the problem is the programs. Currently, the most feasible applications are certified randomness, scheduling optimisation, route and fleet optimisation and site-selection optimisation. (McKinsey, 2021) Nevertheless, states are extracting or capturing encrypted data today to decrypt them in the future. (Vincent, 2021)
• Quantum communications are in the prototype and demonstration phase, particularly in China. (IISS, 2019)

Bibliography

Allison, P. R. (2018). Prepare now for quantum computers, QKD and post-quantum encryption. Computer Weekly. Retrieved from https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Prepare-now-for-quantum-computers-QKD-and-post-quantum-encryption

Dowling, J. P., & Milburn, G. J. (2003). Quantum technology: the second quantum revolution. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. doi:https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2003.1227

Gould, J. (2021). Senators push quantum computing at DoD. C4ISRNET. Retrieved from https://www.c4isrnet.com/congress/2021/04/16/senators-push-quantum-computing-at-dod/

Harper, J. (2020). Pentagon Trying to Manage Quantum Science Hype. National Defense. Retrieved from https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/12/10/pentagon-trying-to-manage-quantum-science-hype

IISS. (2019). Quantum computing and defence. In IISS, The Military Balance 2019 (pp. 18-20). Retrieved from https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2019/quantum-computing-and-defence

Johnston, H. (2021). Quantum advantage takes a giant leap in optical and superconducting systems. Physics World. Retrieved from https://physicsworld.com/a/quantum-advantage-takes-a-giant-leap-in-optical-and-superconducting-systems/

Krelina, M. (2021). Quantum technology for military. EPJ Quantum Technology. doi:https://doi.org/10.1140/epjqt/s40507-021-00113-y

Parker, E. (2021). Commercial and Military Applications and Timelines for Quantum Technology. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.

Rincon, P. (2021). IBM claims advance in quantum computing. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59320073

Sayler, K. M. (2021). Defence Primer: Quantum Technology. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://news.usni.org/2021/05/27/report-on-military-applications-for-quantum-computing

Tucker, P. (2021). Quantum Sensor Breakthrough Paves Way For GPS-Free Navigation. Defence One. Retrieved from https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/11/quantum-sensor-breakthrough-paves-way-gps-free-navigation/186578/

van Amerongen, M. (2021). Quantum technologies in defence & security. NATO Review. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2021/06/03/quantum-technologies-in-defence-security/index.html

Vincent, B. (2021). China May Steal Encrypted Data Now to Decrypt In Years to Come, Report Warns. Defence One. Retrieved from https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/11/report-china-may-steal-encrypted-government-data-now-decrypt-quantum-computers-later/187025/

Telecommunications service provider, Cyber security and European future

 Possible Evolution of European Society

Assuming that the Russia – Ukraine war will linger for several years without a final resolution (as Russia wants and Europe yields), the fact remains that the time for cheap Russian energy in Europe is passed. Consequently, the accelerated green transfer will disrupt European industry, energy-intensive manufacturing will vanish, and cyber-physical products and services will need to become the primary European export goods within the next five to ten years. Furthermore, Europe may compete with Asia and America with accelerated transformations in the industry (4th industrial revolution), focused science and technology investments (3D and AI-enabled engineering and design), getting rid of geographical distance (Metaverse) that constraints human collaboration, man-machine teaming that accelerates the design and manufacturing performance, open data that provides large enough models for human and machine behaviour, and with forward-looking European market (EU digital acts). On the other hand, the European future depends on fewer younger generations who can disrupt industry, economy, and finance by teaming with machines as the population ages. Finally, Europe needs more coherency to deal with energy transfer, digital transformations, total security, and protecting political and economic interests.

Figure: Digital Compass for Europe 2030 (DigitalEU)

Probable Evolution of Technology

The migration journey starting with digitisation, following digitalisation and further digital transformation, proceeds at a pace defined by knowledge, competency, cooperation, business, digital maturity, and trust. (Andrews, et al., 2018) Nevertheless the complexity, the rate of change has been unforeseeable since digitisation impacted over 50% of the world population within two decades. (UN, 2022) Currently, the world feels the impact of the following three waves of evolution in information and communications technology (ICT):

1. Wave: Mobile Internet and Platforms

• The Internet with IP protocol, WWW and Browser
• 3-4G providing mobile data connection
• Smart mobile devices
• Platforms for social behaviour and economic transactions (Kenney & Zysman, 2016)
• Big data and business analysis/intelligence

2. Wave: Cyber-physical products and services

• 5 G provides near-zero latency connections for masses of connected devices
• The Internet of Things will produce 75% of organisations' data by 2025 (Stackpole, 2022)
• Migration of algorithms and machine learning automate digitised processes and provide a variety of man-machine interfaces
• Cloud computing provides computing power for services like IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS, which are easy to replicate and provide

3. Wave: Real-time networks of machines and Metaverse for humans

• Non-latency and high bandwidth access networks (Wi-Fi 6, 5G and 6G) are connected through fibre optical connections for networks able to slice capacity for immersive 8K perception for humans and real-time connections between machines.
• Quantum technology will increase computing performance, disrupt encryption, and improve the sensitivity of sensors, accurate timing, and communications bandwidth. (Johnston, 2021)
• The automated function of networked machines enables the 4th industrial revolution, autonomous transportation, and smarter cities.
• Edge computing and data-driven machine learning improve the level of machine cognition (Brown, 2022)
• Digitisation and increasing connected devices will increase the amount of data by 2025 to 175 Zettabytes. Human cognition requires machine support and smart data to identify any pattern from the amount of data. (De Goes, 2013)
• Human-machine interface migrates from screen and keyboard to 3D Metaverse. (Gartner, 2021)

Europe has already lost wave two because US and China-hosted platforms have engaged most of the social, economic, and financial transfers, prominent US-borne LEO satellite constellations will compete with terrestrial wideband access to the Internet, integrated circuits manufacturing is outsourced, and the majority of software development takes place in US, China, or India. Furthermore, China pushes its cheap infrastructure and automation packages to global markets.

Wave three still provides an opportunity for European engineering, democracy, and economy, as Europe has some advantages in science and technology (S&T) together with active innovation and entrepreneurial culture. However, Europe will benefit from this opportunity only if the transformation is faster than the more voluptuous but slower competitors. Moreover, besides strong S&T, the transformation requires a supportive environment for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that provide added value to common markets. Therefore, the European availability of capital, infrastructure, services, channels, supply chains, platforms, and cooperation networks are essential enablers.

Information Security Remains Essential for European Future

Since the disrupting transformation needs to happen faster than any previous journey on the evolutionary path, there will be several critical hurdles to overcome. Mitigating these hurdles requires a social contract based on trust within the democratic political and liberal (venture capitalism, individualism, private property) economy systems. While society and its services are digitising faster than ever, digital trust  has become a foundational enabler. Suppose people lose their trust in digital services, cyber-physical products, the information provided by authorities, digital healthcare, or smart facilities they live in. In that case, the transformation will halt, and the European opportunity to gain from the ongoing development wave will be lost.

Naturally, fast development produces mistakes and failures. Hopefully, industry and service providers will learn quick enough to keep the negative impact small and short. Nevertheless, the problem becomes more severe because the state-level competitors intentionally fragment digital trust while generating an advantage for their authoritarian style (loss of privacy, big brother control, new class society) cyber-physical services. (Fleming, 2022)

In conclusion, the inside and outside sources of security failures need to be managed better than during the previous waves of digital evolution. The fundamental ways of mitigation include, for example:

1. The digitised national critical infrastructure must be more robust and resilient against failures. In addition, the whole supply chain of components intended to create critical infrastructure needs inbuilt security (processes like SecDevSecOps) . 
2. All operators of critical infrastructure services need to have preventive, real-time monitoring, and reactive measures to manage cyber behaviour and possible violations in their area of responsibility. In addition, security operations require automated threat analysis, behaviour monitoring and reaction to incidents because human responses and persistence are insufficient.
3. The edge processing and storing of data requires distributed security policy and trust between operators and users. Therefore, data security that supports low-latency implementations becomes crucial for new services supporting green transfer, 4IR, smart cities, design & engineering and automated traffic.
4. Identity and access management in the digital realm create the foundation for trust. Notably, the exponentially rising number of connected devices will challenge average enterprises. A service provider or broker would make it easier for enterprises to improve their automation with trusted machine-to-machine transactions.
5. The security processes for development and operations take time to mature. Only at higher maturity levels will the processes systematically learn from mistakes and near-misses and improve their performance and quality. Unfortunately, SMEs do not have time to establish teams with high process maturity. Hence, they need providers or jump-start partners to accelerate their abilities.
6. Europe does not educate competent people enough to suffice for all entities to take care of their security.  Furthermore, small enterprises do not have time to establish security to meet higher digital trust. Therefore, security service providers and B-to-B cooperation are essential in building digital trust between all stakeholders.
7. A Service provider must comply with existing and emerging legislation of European Digital Markets, Data Privacy and Protection, sustainable digital infrastructure, etc. (EU, 2021) The compliance requires both in-organisation and third-party auditing, multi-country cooperation, and transparent performance indicators.

Bibliography

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Brown, S., 2022. Why it's time for 'data-centric artificial intelligence'. [Online] 

Available at: https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/why-its-time-data-centric-artificial-intelligence [Accessed July 2022].

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Available at: https://venturebeat.com/2013/02/22/big-data-is-dead-whats-next/

[Accessed July 2022].

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Fleming, J., 2022. Director of Government Communications Headquarters, UK [Interview] (11 October 2022).

Gartner, 2021. The IT roadmap for digital business transformation. [Online] 

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[Accessed 2022].

Johnston, H., 2021. Quantum advantage takes a giant leap in optical and superconducting systems. Physics World, Issue October.

Kenney, M. & Zysman, J., 2016. The rise of the platform economy. Issues in science and technology, 32(3).

Stackpole, B., 2022. The promise of edge computing comes down to data. [Online] 

Available at: https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/promise-edge-computing-comes-down-to-data [Accessed July 2022].

UN, 2022. The Impact of Digital Technologies. [Online] 

Available at: https://www.un.org/en/un75/impact-digital-technologies [Accessed July 2022].