Analysing the European Defence and Military Strategies

 Perceived situation

The European militaries are facing change both in the security environment and within military affairs. The threat of Russian hybrid means has infected the European security environment, and the projection of its conventional forces has been the new reality for over twelve years. Military affairs are transitioning to address the near-peer adversary, and are also on the brink of deploying large numbers of unmanned platforms.  

An Approach for Strategy Analysis

Burgelman’s strategic dynamics model (Burgelman, Snihur, & Thomas, 2023) provides a tool for analysing the strategic situation of the European Armed Forces. The strategic Dynamics Quadrant combines the volatility of the security environment and military affairs in Figure 1 with the following sectors: 

1. Rule-abiding evolution happens when the Armed Forces are stable, and the security environment evolves according to foreseeable scenarios.
2. Revolution of the security environment happens when the Armed Forces follow a linear path of evolution, but the security environment is more volatile and unforeseeable.
3. Revolution of military affairs happens when the Armed Forces aim for transformation and gain a strategic advantage when the security environment takes foreseeable paths.
4. Uncertainty happens when both the security environment and military affairs are facing pressure to change, but the future seems to be complex.

How are sampled European Defence or Military Strategies Approaching the Volatility?

Assuming that the era of a rule-based security environment and linearly evolving military capabilities in Europe is over, and that a more unpredictable security situation and faster-evolving military affairs are the new normal. European militaries are facing the remaining three strategic options in Figure 1:

1. The situation remains stable, and military affairs evolve in a linear manner. Some Western and Southern European nations do not perceive Russian threats or are willing to accelerate the transformation of their militaries. 
2. While recognising the revolution of the security environment, nations are preparing resiliency against the unknown Russian threats. Meanwhile, nations are building the readiness, volume, and capabilities of their contemporary forces at a faster pace. It seems that most of the Eastern and Northern European nations have taken this path. 
3. The Russian playbook has been played for the past four years. They project their hybrid powers and conventional forces with volume and ability to sustain losses.  While unable to build on the same strengths, European military affairs need to transform quickly to achieve a strategic advantage in both deterrence and kill ratio without sacrificing live soldiers (Revolution of Affairs). At least the US and UK militaries are experimenting with new systems and building more connected System-of-systems. Many Forces are discussing the topic, but their strategies do not seem to prioritise revolutionary capabilities. Nevertheless, the European defence industry sees an opportunity to sell higher-priced systems integration and autonomy rather than the 155 mm ballistic artillery grenade. 
4. Uncertainty: NATO coherence has been questioned. Russia and the coalition behind it are unpredictable. The European military has been too slow to adapt to a rapidly evolving security environment, and the Russo-Ukrainian theatre of war shows signs of a major revolution in the deployment of unmanned platforms. None of the sampled European defence strategies or military development plans fit into this approach.

Figure 1: A tool to analyse strategic postures in military affairs, adjusted from Burgelman's original approach to strategic dynamics